A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
